If you’re interested in learning to trade successfully in sports, then why not visit the Crystall Ball website, where we have more detailed information? So I thought I would follow up with the video that I did at the weekend because I was talking about how Cheltenham went and how you’d have to adjust to the new state of the markets as we moved in to a different sort of racing. So what I did on Monday was: I traded the card in sort of the manner in which I would expect I didn’t go massively aggressive. I went very cautious and actively traded it in the way that I was expressing within the video so that you can actually see what the results look like. So how did it go? What I went?
Okay, actually, I traded 19 races overall and I lost on three of those, but I was able to contain the losses on those two quite tight numbers, and I did okay on all of the rest of the races on 16 out of 19, so had a strike Rate of about 85 % now, as I’ve said in a number of videos, I’m quite likely to get a strike rate where I get sort of seven or eight out of ten right and I’ll lose on the others, and that’s sort of the natural progression that I’ve Seen over a very large number of years, so that was sort of about where I expected, but actually probably slightly higher. I would have expected on sort of 20 races, maybe to lose four or five races, and the fact is that I actually managed to do a little bit better on that front. If you look at the average amount one as well, you can see that I’ve won on average a reasonable amount and I think the average win per race was around 14. I may have to stand corrected on that, but you can have a look at the stats and work it out for yourself, but my average loss was absolutely tiny and that’s typically not that unusual for me, although I have to say that when I was doing it On Monday, I knew that I was going to post a video about it, so I was probably a little bit more cautious and then I would typically trade, because when I’m at Chatham it’s all about throwing as much money market as I possibly can and when we’re In these other markets, then I tend to be a little bit more defensive, but because I knew I was going to record a video on it and I was going to publish the results.
I was extra defensive, so I probably could have maybe made a bit more money if I would have traded it more aggressively, but I didn’t I was sort of just trying to go for a nice neat result effectively. So it’s funny because even I suffer from performance, anxiety and everybody suffers from performance anxiety, especially England. Football is when they’re about to take a penalty, but I was still able to trade very effectively, but maybe I could have probably pushed a little bit harder and I would have got some bigger results. But I probably would have got a few more losses as well. But as it was as the day progressed, I just kept things neat and tidy, so probably my bad for not pushing as hard as possible, but hopefully will give you an illustration as to sort of what you expect to see.
Typically, I would have expected a more losses, be them to be slightly bigger, but on this particular day I was reading the market pretty well and slotted into the zone fairly quickly and was able to find reasonable entry points in most of the markets. And that’s what accounts for the lack of losses and also the size of them, which of which being very small but typically, as you saw in the other video, that’s normally not the case and I’m guessing. I was influenced by what I wanted the outcome to be so yeah necessarily. You can see that it’s handing out pretty much the way that I indicated that it would do in the previous video. Now I know on the previous video I used some old results to show you, because I thought that that would be relatable to what you would probably be trying to do in the market using smaller stakes and trading in that sort of particular manner.
But when I was thinking about it at the weekend, I was thinking well. You know it would be a good idea if I just posted it up exactly what happened on Monday and you can see it there, but generally what you’re looking at when you’re trading is three different things you’re looking at your strike rate you’re. Looking at how much you win and how much you lose and you’re sort of thinking? Well, isn’t that, like just one trade?
Well, typically, not because if your strike rate is very high, then it’s possible that when you actually win you can win much less than you lose. I know that sounds a little bit odd, but but it’s true basically the higher your strike rate is. Then you don’t have to go for as much profit and when you get losses they can be a little bit bigger as well, but if your strike rate comes all the way down, then that equation there changes all over the place. So typically, you know the perfect scenario would be very high strike rate. When you win, you win dis, new mats.
When you lose, you lose almost nothing, which is what I managed to achieve on Monday. But that’s not the norm. The norm is our balance between all of those three things.
So when I’m looking at record-keeping, that’s what I tend to monitor all of the time, I’m looking at. How often do I win when I win? How much do I win and then that itself will actually tell me how much I can afford to lose and that’s pretty much where I started trading, but when I started trading I was doing it the other way around I’d go into the market, throw some money Around see how much I lost and then work out what I needed to do to win, so I would go into the market and actively trade. It figure out what my my general loss was, and I think I’m like. If I’m losing this much, then I need to win this much on average and my strike rate has to be around here, so the strike rate is generally defined and when I mentioned strike rates, it’s the percentage of trades that you win against the percentage that you Lose but what I’m talking about when we talk about strike rate, it’s predominantly defined by how good you are picking positions within the market, but you’ll be surprised because some of its dependent upon the level of trade.
So if I go in – and I scalp a market, for example, I’ll get a very high strike rate, so you know – and that’s because the market moves in small bumpy lines basically and therefore, if you put two orders in you’re gon na get both of them filled Reasonably quickly and you will get them filled with a high strike rate. So if you go for a move, that’s less than 5 ticks, for example, your strike rate should be generally high unless, if you’re actually cutting out that position very quickly, because then what happens is then you negate that immediately by. I hope by lowering your strike rate by cutting out the position too quickly before it’s matured for a profit. So when scalping you’re going for a one, tick, profit and you’ll probably get that quite frequently.
But if you’re going for a larger move and then the larger the move you go for, your strike rate will fall, but the amount of profit they get from that route will be quite high, so it will offset losses that you make when you get that wrong. So, typically, if you’re scalping, he wants to put a trade in the market, you have a very high strike rate but you’re limiting your potential profits to one so that effectively frames the amount of profit that you can afford to lose. So scalping becomes entirely strike rate dependent.
However, if you’re doing a large trend or a swing trade and what you’ll typically find is that you’re going to have a very, very large move and your strike rate could be a little bit lower. But when you get into one of those trades – and you realize that it’s a mistake, if you dump that position reasonably quickly, then your strike rate will go down. But when you catch those big moves as long as you’re getting into the market at a moment when those big moves are likely to occur, then that will more than offset your lower strike rate and the more frequent losses that you’re getting so there’s a saying in The stock market, which is cut your losses and let your profits run that’s a strategy.
You would necessarily apply if you’re trying to catch a large move within the market, but yeah strike rate can be defined quite a bit by how much money you’re asking for. If you’re asking for one tick, his strike rate is going to be high. But if your should be high, because if it’s not high enough you’re, not gon na make money. But when you’re looking over a much much bigger move, you can afford for your strike rate, to be a little bit lower. But for your losses are going to dwarf the amount of times that you get it wrong because you go into the market, you realize you made a mistake and you dump it and then you try again and then eventually the move occurs.
So yeah wait. The successful trading is all about the combination of lows, all those things. So what I do is I go into the exchange that I’m using I’ll download a spreadsheet of all of my activity over that particular day and then I’ll arrange that spreadsheet in such a manner that it has. How often I won how much I want when I did win and how much I lost when I, when I eventually lost – and that gives you you know how you’re operating within the market. So if any of those numbers are out of kilter, then you know what you have to address if your losses are too big and probably you’re not getting into the market at the right time or you’re, letting those losses run for too long, if your losses are Small and your strike rates reasonable, but you’re not really making much.
Then you probably need to let those trades run a little bit further. So it’s the interaction between strike rate and the win and lost value that defines whether you’re trading successfully or not. But if you don’t keep any notes, then you’ll never know. What’S generally going wrong, you know, as your strike rate, only 30 %. Is it 70 % and how much you’re winning in proportion, how much you’re losing that will guide you in terms of what you needs to adjust in your particular trading? So you can see when I trade it.
On Monday, I traded 19 races. I skipped a few of them because that was the easiest way to avoid a loss. I just looked at them and nothing sort of registered up here. They just I couldn’t see an opportunity, so I just skipped over them and that can be for any reason.
You could be in a market that you recognize, but nothing happens or you could just look at the market and say well, I don’t know what’s happening and therefore the best thing to do is to avoid it too many people get involved in a trade simply because They want to make some money and they don’t think through whether there is an opportunity to do something there or not so yeah. If you look at what I did a Monday, that’s typically what I’ll sort of be doing around you know that the weaker parts of the card and the weaker parts of the week at certain times of the year, but as the quality improves, then I get a Little bit more aggressive and those numbers begin to right. That’S a rice, so I do increase the low my steak according to what I expect to see according to how I expected to trade and exactly what I’m trading and you can see that in comparison to what I was doing at Cheltenham last week. You know it’s a it’s a dramatic change, but there’s no way I could do what I did a chart them last week and if I did what I’m doing now at Cheltenham, then I wouldn’t earn II.
Think so I have to flex in and out of that over the course Thea. But the fact is that P & L from Monday is what’s going to make up 80 % of the year and the remaining 20 % will be much bigger opportunities at bigger events. On bigger days, at bigger races and so on, so I hope that that’s given you an insight as to how you’re likely to trade and what you’re likely to see and how trading in a week like this week and how trading on Monday was very different from How I traded.